We pick based on early lines, posted Tuesday morning. We'll be lucky to go .500 when the favorites clean up like they have the past two weeks. Favorites are 20-8 ATS in weeks 7 and 8. We've been tracking games against these lines since 2010. The only other time that favorites had back to back 10 win weeks was in weeks 3-4 of 2013 (20-10-1).
Falcons Jets is a good example. The line posted 4.5 on Tuesday but moved to 6.5 by game time. We gave 6, so we lost money on a game we picked correctly. Nice. Bet the favorites early and the underdogs late.
Hanging out at 51%, a bookies best friend. Above .500 so we think we could have something going, but really just paying the vig.