There are 3 late games, then Sunday and Monday night. 5 games. 4 short home dogs. I blew it with the Jets/Bills pick on Thursday. Usually we’re careful to say we, since it’s two of us writing under the same banner. But this time it was all me, thinking I was smarter than the years of sharp betting strategy. Also I said you should ride the Bills, which is just dumb. So …. sorry. I’m picking all the home dogs this week.
Oakland (3-5) -3.5 at MIAMI (4-3)
That’s right. It’s the “This is why we can't have nice things” Game of the Week. Awesome prime-time game. Sorry, NBC.
What is up with these teams? Offensive weapons all over the place, and offenses that are completely lost. Think about it this way: when we were looking at this game, we said “They’ll probably be better with Cutler.” Likely this is the first time that sentence was formed in the history of language.
Miami is rid of Jay Ajayi, which we understand helps their team chemistry. It also sends 86% of their rushing yards to be the backup in Philly. He should be really happy there. Not. Oakland has Marshawn Lynch back after his one-game suspension, and you know how we feel about having Marshawn around.
I love this new strategy. Otherwise there would be absolutely no reason to take either of these teams. Just take the points and look up the score Monday AM. There will be no highlights to watch.
Pick: Watching the Simpsons -14 vs watching this game
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
Kansas City (6-2) -0.5 at DALLAS (4-3)
We’ve been learning every week writing about these picks. Sometimes the jokes are great (Kiser So-So was inspired, but we have written Kevin Spacey out of our future lineup), sometimes we don't focus on the game enough (me picking the Bills last Thursday), and sometimes we have to put aside our Giants fandom and just admit that the Eagles and the Cowboys are good teams this year.
Is Kansas City smoke and mirrors? It’s so hard to tell. Eric Berry’s injury early in the year was devastating for their secondary, and they’re 30th in the league, allowing 6.0 yards per play. Both teams are scoring over 28 per game. It’s more likely that Alex Smith struggles than Dallas’ offense won't grind down the field all day long.
Finally, we look for Dez Bryant to start catching the football. He’s 8th in the league with over 9 targets per game, but he’s 20th in catches. His catch rate is slightly over 50%. And Dak is a pretty accurate passer.
This line moved hard and is now Dallas -2.5. We would give the points. But that doesn't matter in our Tuesday line world. We’re taking advantage of this one.
Pick: Cowboys +0.5
Arizona (3-4) -2.5 at SAN FRANCISCO (0-8)
Isn't this game just screaming to take Arizona? Yes, yes it is. Know why? Because the Niners are their own worst enemy. They made a great for a young QB, and then Coach Kyle Shanahan says the following: “You can feel a little different buzz with Garropalo.”, followed by “I can't guarantee he’s going to play this year.”
We get it. You want to give him the chance to be successful and to learn the system. But it’s not like you’ve got Tom Brady on the staff calling the shots. BTW, Tom Brady totally LeBron’ed Garropalo. Forced a terrible trade because he believes that he’s immortal. We’ll see how that works for them.
After watching the Bills trade for Benjamin and hold him out of the “game” Thursday, and now this, we only have one thing to say:
We like the short home dog, starring (gulp) CJ Beathard. Man I hope this strategy shit works.
Pick: Niners +2.5
SEATTLE (5-2) -7.5 vs Washington (3-4)
Finally, a home favorite. I’ve gotten so used to just picking the home team that I don't know how to call this one. Before I got crazy about home dogs, my favorite thing in the world is taking the points when there’s a hook (if the line is 3.5 or 7.5, the extra half point is called the hook).
Earl Thomas is out for Seattle. Countless offensive linemen are out for the Redskins. It’s been crazy to watch, seems like they’ve lost 5-6 players each of the last two weeks. So it’s no contest.
Wait for it.
Earl Thomas is more important to Seattle than the entire offensive line is to Washington.
Seattle’s defense got lit up by Houston. We think they’re likely to score 30, the offense is playing well. But they’re going to give up at least 22.5.
Pick: Skins +7.5
Detroit (3-4) -2.5 at GREEN BAY (4-3)
Poor Packers fans. Without Rodgers they’re 0-2 and are scoring 12ppg less. The best unit on the field tonight will be the Lions defense. They’re really strong against the run, and will force the Packers to rely on Brett Hundley’s arm. Martellus Bennett’s likely absence leaves them with one fewer blocker, and more importantly, their best checkdown receiver. Detroit has lost 3 in a row, and last week they moved the ball up and down the field at will, but there was a force field keeping them out of the end zone, resulting in 5 field goals. Good for Matt Prater fantasy owners, but that’s about it.
There is no reason for either of these teams to be over .500? So the Lions will win. By 1. (Go home dogs!)
Pick: Packers +2.5