Week 8 (Part 1): Rat Farts!

We are going to acknowledge our 4-10 week and move on. The 1 Fireball picks have gotten stomped for 2 weeks ever since we joked that they’re so good that they should be behind a paywall. I would say we subconsciously sabotaged the 1 Fireball picks, but that would imply that the other picks would have been better. They were not. See the carnage on the Results page. Or don’t. Just read below. At least these have a chance to not suck.

We’ll have a part 2, probably later tonight. Those of you who know us know that “later tonight” on a Thursday means “sometime before 1PM Sunday”.


HOUSTON (4-3) -7.5 vs. Miami (4-3)

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Houston is riding 4 game win streak and is leading the AFC South with a 4-3 record, yet somehow, they lost to the NY Giants. Beating Jacksonville lately doesn’t make you a good team. Take the points, especially since you are getting the hook.

PICK: Miami +7.5
3 Fireball Shots


Philadelphia (3-4) -3.5 @ JACKSONVILLE (3-4)
* The Philly in London “Yo! I Got Your Liberty Bell Right Here, Queen!” Pick of the Week *

Sir Blake Bortles is 3-0 in London, with wins in each of the past 3 seasons. His TD/INT ratio is 8 to 1 and the Jags have averaged 36 pts in those wins. But Bortles was benched last week in favor of Cody Kessler. Sir Blake’s play was so bad last week that in 6 offensive drives he completed only 6 passes. In contrast, Kessler completed 9 passes in the first 2 drives he led. Jags will go with Sir Blake this week but he will be on a short leash. Given his past performance in London, the Jags are making the right decision especially against a struggling Eagles team.

PICK: JACKSONVILLE +3.5
3 Fireball Shots


PITTSBURGH (3-2-1) -8.5 vs. Cleveland (2-4-1)

Since 2000, one of the fiercest rivalries in football has been completely one-sided. The Steelers have dominated the Browns since the turn of the century with a record of 32-5-1 with the tie coming in week 1 of this year. Now that Baker Mayfield has taken over the helm for the Browns, I expect this rivalry to be reignited. Mayfield has too much personality to not be fired up for the visit to Heinz field. This game is guaranteed to feature crazy play calls, bad coaching decisions, horrible turnovers and stupid penalties. Everything you could ask for on a late October Sunday afternoon.

PICK: Cleveland +8.5
2 Fireball Shots



KANSAS CITY (6-1) -10.5 vs. Denver (3-4)

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Denver:

  • 6-15 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons.

  • 2-9 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.

  • 3-12 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

  • 0-6 ATS in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

  • 4-13 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

KANSAS CITY:

  • 7-0 ATS in all games this season.

  • 6-0 ATS against conference opponents this season.

  • 12-2 ATS versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

  • 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.

All signs point to an easy KC win and cover. But, the Chiefs angered the gambling gods last week by not trying to score in the final 12 minutes of the game after rushing to a 45-10 lead. With the over/under at 56, many bettors hung on for the last quarter waiting on a score. No luck and no over.

PICK: Denver +10.5
2 Fireball Shots


Washington (4-2) -0.5 @ NY GIANTS (1-6)

Giants will continue to try to turn their season around. Two trades last week signal that the Giants may be tanking this season, but I think otherwise. This team has too much talent to mail it in the rest of the year. I think the players rally around the tanking rhetoric and put together their best performance to date. Also, the Redskins are not as good as their record indicates.  

Initially, I was shocked the Giants went for 2 when they scored to get with 8. I didn’t like the decision at the time. After hearing Pat Shurmur’s press conference and some more thinking about probabilities, I like the call. It was bold. It signaled confidence in the offense and defense. And it’s a move that would have been lauded if they connected on the pass. Great play call, not a great pass. Still, I’m on board with the decision.

The decision to run back to back QB sneaks from the 1 with the slowest, whitest QB in the league is one I cannot get behind. You have a running back who can squat almost 700 lbs. I’m pretty sure he can move the pile a yard for the score.

PICK: NY GIANTS +0.5
2 Fireball Shots


CHICAGO (3-3) -6.5 vs. NY Jets (3-4)
* ME UNDIES BACKDOOR COVER OF THE WEEK *

I bet their periods are in sync too.

The Jets are having a surprisingly good year, but the Bears are the better team. At least for the first 3 quarters of games that is. The Bears have come out strong in every game this year but have struggled to close them all out. They dominated the Packers in the first half of week 1, but lost 24-23 to an injured Aaron Rodgers. They led the Dolphins late in week 6, but allowed a 75-yd TD to tie and lost in OT after missing a FG. And just last week, the Patriots needed a kickoff return TD and a blocked punt TD to win at Soldier Field. What I’m saying is this team should be at least 5-1 if not 6-0! That being said, Jets will get a late score to cover making this our ME UNDIES BACKDOOR COVER OF THE WEEK.  

PICK: NY Jets +6.5
1 Fireball Shot


CINCINNATI (4-3) -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay (3-3)
* The [Insert Gratuitous Jameis Winston Joke] Pick of the Week *

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TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons. Bad news, (remaining) Jameis fans, this game is being played in October. Happy Halloween!

PICK: CINCINNATI -4.5
1 Fireball Shot

PS - Tell us that’s not Marcus Mariota in the picture. The one on the left.