Week 6: None of the Above!

1 Fireball picks are a scorching 16-9 this year. Get them while they’re hot because soon we’re putting them behind a paywall. You can see it on the Results page.

Philadelphia (2-3) -2.5 at NY GIANTS (1-4)


The Giants were +1200 to win the NFC East before the Redskins game on Monday. Those odds will come down faster than Alex Smith checking down to a 4 yard gain when everyone realizes that the NFC East has 3 bad teams and the Eagles suffering from an epic Super Bowl hangover. It’s anyone's division. Vote with your hearts and wallets.

Pick: Giants +2.5
2 Fireball shots

Chicago (3-1) -3.5 at MIAMI (3-2)


You’ve been hearing this all week. Hurricane Ditka coming to Miami. Chicago scores a ton of points in the first half and Miami doesn’t have the offense to recover. Miami has no answer for Khalil Mack.

But Miami has the Bears’ number. 8-4 lifetime. Remember that 85 Bears team? The Super Bowl Shuffle team? 15-1 regular season and outscored 3 playoff opponents 91-10? Know who they lost to that year? The Dolphins. In Miami. Don't argue with history and a home dog getting 3.5.

Pick: Miami +3.5
3 Fireball shots!

MINNESOTA (2-2-1) -10.5 vs Arizona (1-4)

Kirk Cousins giving 10.5 is an automatic bet against. Sorry Kirk.

Pick: Arizona +10.5
3 Fireball Shots!

ATLANTA (1-4) -3.5 vs Tampa Bay (2-2)

Atlanta is struggling to be relevant. If they lose this one they are done in the NFC South this year. They’ll play well at home. They may even throw Julio the ball in the end zone. (ed. note: Nah.)

Tampa Bay is always struggling to be relevant. Even that year they won the Super Bowl every conversation ended with “yeah, but Tampa Bay”. Tampa Bay jumped the shark with FitzMagic dressing up as Conor McGregor. He’s lucky nobody cold cocked him on his way back to the locker room to give DeSean Jackson his clothes back. Do you think DeSean put on that shirt, went out to the clubs, and about 3 hours later go “hey, Ryan Fitzpatrick just made fun of my clothes?” Did he call Cam Newton for emotional support?

Pick: Atlanta -3.5
2 Fireball shots

WASHINGTON (2-2) -0.5 vs Carolina (3-1)

The NFC South is way better than the NFC East. Even though these teams are pretty evenly matched,  Washington is on a short week after getting embarrassed on the Drew Brees Monday Night Football Love Fest brought to you by ESPN and that’s enough. We’re taking Carolina only because we expect the Skins defense to get caught napping when another play happens right after a completed pass instead of a ticker tape parade.

Pick: Carolina +0.5
1 Fireball shot

CINCINNATI (4-1) -2.5 vs Pittsburgh (2-2-1)

Pittsburgh sucks on the road. There’s no analysis that can make that go away. This should be a really good game.

Pick: Cincinnati -2.5
2 Fireball shots

LA Chargers (3-2)  -0.5 at CLEVELAND (2-2-1)

This is a real dilemma.


The Chargers play strong on the road and keep pace in the AFC south? A 4-2 Chargers team would make us all believe that they’re a true playoff contender. So clearly we cannot pick the Chargers!

The Cleveland Browns go above .500 after 6 weeks? That would make them playoff contenders as well. So clearly we cannot pick the Browns!

We took the Chargers, but then secretly switched the pick when your back was turned.

Pick: Browns +0.5
1 Fireball shot

HOUSTON (2-3) -8.5 vs. Buffalo (2-3)

Last week, Houston had the ball inside the Dallas 5 yard five different times. They came away with one TD and three FGs and needed OT to beat the Cowboys 19-16. Buffalo squeaked out a 13-12 win at home vs. Tennessee, holding the Titans to 4 FGs.

The over/under is 41. For this game to go over, one of these teams is going to need to score at least 28. I don’t see that happening. I’m not sure both teams combined will score 28. If you must, take the points and the under and don’t waste any of your Sunday watching this game.

PICK: Buffalo +8.5
1 Fireball Shot

NY JETS (2-3) -2.5 vs. Indianapolis (1-4)


This is the by far the most creative and well written, NFL QB Parody twitter account. Definitely a worthy follow.

I liked this Jets team coming into the season and was rewarded in week 1 when they beat the Lions. When they followed that impressive win with a terrible lose in week 2, I jumped of the bandwagon faster than Eli Manning throwing the ball at the ground after a false start. Now after a big win over the Broncos, I’m back. Andrew Luck plays everyone close so I love that this line is under 3. Jets win 24-21.

2 Fireball Shots!

Seattle (2-3) -2.5 @ OAKLAND (1-4)


This game is London, but it is technically a Raiders home game. Great quote from Jon Gruden about the overseas trip - "You hate to lose a home game, honestly, but for the betterment of the game, I think it's exciting. It's great for the game of football." For the betterment of all, both teams should stay in London.

PICK: Seattle -2.5
2 Fireball Shots!

LA Rams (5-0) -6.5 @ DENVER (2-3)

Sunday’s forecast shows a chance of show in Denver. Those that live in Denver know that there is always a chance of snow except for July & August.

The Rams come into Denver after a tough 33-31 road win in Seattle. I see a lot of similarities to last week’s spot for the Rams.

  1. Big road favorite

  2. Going against one of the strongest home field advantages in the league

  3. Facing a defense that is deemed good based on reputation alone

Like last week, Rams may win this game, but it won’t be by more than a FG.

3 Fireball Shots!!

Baltimore (3-2) -2.5 @ TENNESSEE (3-2)

Tennessee lost to Buffalo 13-12
Buffalo lost to Baltimore 47-3
Baltimore lost to Cleveland 12-9
Cleveland tied Pittsburgh 21-21
Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore 26-14
Baltimore lost to Cincinnati 34-23
Cincinnati lost to Carolina 31-21
Carolina lost to Atlanta 31-21
Atlanta lost to Philadelphia 18-12
Tennessee beat Philadelphia 26-23

That all means absolutely nothing, but it was fun to go through. I’ll always take the short home favorite (unless it’s Dallas or Oakland in London this week).

3 Fireball Shots!!

Jacksonville (3-2) -2.5 @ DALLAS (2-3)


Until the Cowboys fire Jason Garrett, they will be a bet against team. That means given the chance, you should always bet against them.

Garrett is 7th among NFL head coaches in length of tenure. Five of the six coaches ahead of him on that list have won Super Bowls, the other is Marvin Lewis.

Blake Bortles returned to doing Blake Bortles things by throwing 4 INTs last week including one Pick 6. Bortles threw the ball 61 times last week! I expect a bit more clock control this week given the difference between Cowboys offense and Chiefs (last week’s opponent) offense.

Jags win despite Bortles.

PICK: Jacksonville -2.5
2 Fireball Shots!

NEW ENGLAND (3-2) -3.5 vs. Kansas City (5-0)

Normally, in a game between two closely matched teams, you would take the “hook” and bet the underdog +3.5 expecting a close game.

But there are other factors that need consideration.

·         New England has had 10 days to prepare, last playing Thursday vs. Indianapolis.

·         Kansas City played last Sunday night so they have a shorter window to prepare.

·         Bill Belichick is 10-7 ATS when given extra time to prepare.

·         Tom Brady is 18-10 ATS on Sunday night football and Pat Mahomes is 0-1 ATS (last week v. Denver)

·         New England needs a statement win after a slow start to the 2018 season

·         The last time these two teams met – Kansas City routed the Patriots 42-27 in the 2017 season opener

The Chiefs defense ranks last in the league in total yards allowed and I expect the Patriots to exploit this. Josh Gordon should have a huge game against the Chiefs porous secondary. I think we see a shoot-out like last season’s Patriots/Texans game. Start all your Chiefs and Patriots in fantasy – this one should be very high scoring.

3 Fireball Shots!!

GREEN BAY (2-2-1) -9.5 vs. San Francisco (1-4)


Colin Kaepernick has filed for the trademark to a black and white image of his face and hair. I’m fascinated by this news and will be very curious to see how it is used. It also got me thinking of other great NFL “flow” which provided an opportunity highlight Rob Ryan’s only asset.


I only see two possible scenarios for this game.

  • One – Green Bay scores at will and CJ Beathard crumples under the pressure of a Monday night game at Lambeau. Packers win 31-3. 

  • Two – CJ Beathard crumples under repeated Clay Matthews “late hits” and SF manages to put up 17 pts. Pack still wins but doesn’t cover 24-17

PICK: San Francisco +9.5
1 Fireball Shot