Week 6 Late Games & Monday Night: Booty Trap!

Tampa Bay -2.5 @ ARIZONA

This line is 2.5. That’s also the line for INTs thrown by Jameis Winston and Carson Palmer, not total but by each. Take the over on those prop bets and start both defenses in fantasy. There will be at least one pick six in this game, probably more.

Adrian Peterson was traded to Arizona this week and Chris Johnson was released. If this the 2009 season, both would be major stories. In 2017, not so much. Adding Peterson is a positive, however when he’s in the game you know it’s a running play. He’d not much of a blocker which is what Arizona really needs. Still, we like Arizona to come through with some big plays and Jameis to do more dumb things than Palmer.

Always take the short home dog!  

PICK: ARIZONA +2.5


JACKSONVILLE -2.5 vs. LA Rams

Interesting game. We’re going to look at this one statistically.

  • Points Scored: Rams #2 in league, Jags #4 -- Advantage: Rams

  • Points Allowed: Jags #2, Rams #23 -- Advantage: Jags

  • Takeaways: Jags #1, Rams #15 -- Advantage: Jags

  • Passing Yards/Game: Rams #5, Jags #30 -- Advantage: Rams

  • Rushing Yards/Game: Jags #1, Rams #14 -- Advantage: Rams

  • Def. Pass Yards/Game: Jags #3, Rams #10 -- Advantage: Jags

  • Def. Rush Yards/Game: Rams #27, Jags #31 -- Advantage: Rams

  • Local Fan Disinterest: Rams #2, Jags #3 -- Advantage: Jags

  • Parody Twitter Accounts: Bortles #1, Everyone else #2 -- Advantage: Jags

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Looks pretty even on paper. Jags passing D will be a tough match-up for Goff, but Gurley should be able to run on them. If the Rams don’t turn the ball over, they should be able to move the ball on the ground. If the Jags can keep the ball out of Bortles hands, they’ll limit turnovers and allow Fournette to run. This should be a great game. We’re giving a slight edge to the Jags at home.

PICK: JACKSONVILLE -2.5


KANSAS CITY -4.5 vs. Pittsburgh

This game is a total booty trap!

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That’s what I said, booby trap. Geez, you guys!  KC is 5-0 and coming off a good win on the road against Houston. Now back at home, KC gets a Pittsburgh team that is in complete disarray. Big Ben threw 5 picks last week, two returned for TDs. That’s even worse than a “Delhomme” (4 INTs, 1 Pick Six). From now on, 5 INTs and 2 Pick Sixes will be called a “Big Ben” (since no one can spell his last name).

But we’re fairly confident that Big Ben still has a few good games left in him. Don’t forget, Pittsburgh also has Le’veon Bell, the league’s best RB, and Antonio Brown, the league’s best WR. Vegas is daring you to back the Chiefs keeping the line in the Vegas Zone (4.5 - 5.5 pts). Looks like an easy cover for the Chiefs, but something doesn’t smell right here.

Chiefs might be looking ahead to next week when they play the Raiders in Oakland (they still play in Oakland, right?). Steelers must save face after last week’s performance. Take the points, if the Chiefs pull this out it will be by less than 3.

PICK: Pittsburgh +4.5


OAKLAND -4.5 vs. LA Chargers

News Flash! The LA Chargers finally won a game…even though they tried as hard as they could not to win. Even with the Giants down to their last WR, San Diego needed an Eli Manning fumble to set-up the final scoring drive. Not good news for Chargers fans. Wait, are there actually any Chargers fans? After a 3-yearlong soap opera, the Chargers up and moved to a soccer stadium outside of LA. And all the Charger fans in, well they decided to stay in San Diego and eat fish tacos and go surfing. Smartest decision ever!

Oakland is really missing Derek Carr. The offense just can’t do anything without him. But good news Raider fans, Carr is questionable for this week and looks like he might play. That’s a pretty quick recovery from a broken back.

Lynch should have a good game. The Chargers are so bad against the run even the Giants’ RBs recorded good stats. But as mentioned earlier, the Raiders will be looking ahead to next Thursday’s showdown with the Chiefs. Take the Chargers and the points. They’ll play Oakland tough only to lose by a FG.

PICK: LA Chargers +4.5


SUNDAY NIGHT

DENVER -12 vs. NY Giants

After suffering even more devastating injuries on both sides of the ball, the Giants are calling in some reinforcements.

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Last week, 3 Giants WRs were knocked out of the game, 2 of which are out for the season. Not good news for an offense that can’t move the ball. Surprising, the Giants ran the ball effectively last week against the Chargers. This has more to do with the Chargers bad run D than it does the Giants offensive improving. Next up for the Giants is a very tough Denver defense that is well rested coming off a bye. Yikes! Hopefully the new guys will step up.

If the Giants lose this week, Eli Manning will be the first QB to open a season 0-6 on two different occasions. In 2013, the Giants opened 0-6 and then rallied to finish 7-9. This year’s team is going to have a much tougher go of it. No WRs, dreadful O-line, lots of injuries on defense, Ben McAdoo’s play calling, and a super tough schedule are all working against the G-men this year. We don’t think they go 0-16, but 4-12 is very likely.

As we mentioned, Denver is coming off a bye. The defense has keep all four opponents below 300 total yards and is allowing an average of 18.5 pts. We don’t think the Giants will reach that average but they should be able to manage 10-14 pts. The Giants have looked terrible so far this year, but getting 12 pts is too hard to pass up. Look for the Giants to run the “Annexation of Puerto Rico” for a late TD to cover, making this our MeUndies Backdoor Cover of the Week.

PICK: NY Giants +12


MONDAY NIGHT

TENNESSEE -6.5 vs. Indianapolis

Shouldn’t this matchup be a Thursday night game? Not expecting much from this game. Vegas is assuming Mariota is healthy enough and will play on Monday. Otherwise, there is nothing to justify this line.

Luck is still out for the Colts. They final announced that he had a posterior labrum tear in his throwing shoulder. I know from experience, that is a tough surgery and it takes about a year before your shoulder is back to 100%. He returned to practice this week, but probably won’t be game ready until October. Look at week 10 for his return, at home vs. Pittsburgh. Colts have a bye in week 11 to give some extra rest after the first start.

Mariota is questionable for Monday. We think he plays and are basing our pick on that. More points than we would like to give, but Tennessee should win this game by 7 or more.

PICK: TENNESSEE -6.5