Week 5: Would an Idiot do that?

You may have noticed on our Results page that our 1 Fireball picks are over 60%. Remember that this is an irrational confidence scale, so don’t fault us for loving the 3 Fireball games and being no better than a coin toss.


NEW ENGLAND (2-2) -10.5 vs Indianapolis (1-3)
*** MeUndies Backdoor Cover of the Week ***

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New England’s preseason (aka weeks 1-4 of the regular season) is over. They took care of business vs the Dolphins last week, but do you think Brady will be able to cover this overreaction line on a short week? 

Separately, you know Touchdown Tommy and Gisele get freaky in the hyperbaric chamber.

Colts +10.5
3 Fireball Shots!


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Tennessee (3-1) -3.5 at BUFFALO (1-3)

Short home dog. The Titans can’t win or lose a game by more than 3. Should be an easy Buffalo pick. But I just can’t get there. The Josh Allen Bandwagon went into a ditch last week, right when we settled into our bar car seats.

Titans -3.5
1 Fireball shot


CINCINNATI (3-1) -6.5 vs Miami (3-1)

Vontaze Burfict is back after a 4-game suspension for PEDs. That will help the 5th worst pass defense in the league. Give the points and hedge it by betting the over on Cincinnati roughing the passer / helmet hit penalties.

Remember how the helmet rule was going to destroy football? 4 penalties called in the first 4 weeks. There were 1.5 calls per game in the preseason. This is a huge benefit for the Bengals.

Bengals -6.5
2 Fireball shots


KANSAS CITY (4-0) -3.5 vs Jacksonville (3-1)

The Jags can’t move the football. The Chiefs can’t tackle. It’s theoretically possible that the entire game consists of Jacksonville players running sideways not being tackled by the Chiefs. Don’t be fooled by the Jags throwing up 31 on the Pats (slow) and the Jets (Jets). We love the Chiefs’ offense, but the Jags D is capable of turning every game into a rockfight. We’re sticking with the Chiefs and under 48.5.

Chiefs -3.5
1 Fireball shot


Baltimore (3-1) -2.5 at CLEVELAND (1-2-1)

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The Ravens’ defensive coordinator says that “Baker Mayfield is this generation’s Brett Favre or John Elway”. Yup. The man said this after 1.5 games. He probably figures that if he’s right, he’s a genius and if not, it doesn’t make a bit of difference because the offense is the story in Baltimore. He also is named Don Martindale, nicknamed “Wink”. Someone loves their 70s game show hosts.

Ravens -2.5
3 Fireball Shots!


NY JETS (1-3) -1.5 vs Denver (2-2)

After putting up 48 in week 1, the Jets have scored a total of 41 in the next 3 weeks, losing to Miami, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. Against another good defense, and a team that shot itself in the foot losing to the Chiefs, it’s looking like 1-4 for the Jets. Likely keeping them in a tie for “Best football team in NY”. Go Yankees

Broncos +1.5
3 Fireball Shots!


PITTSBURGH (1-2-1) -3.5 vs Atlanta (1-3)

It’s a bad combination for the Steelers. They can be beaten long, and the Falcons are an offensive juggernaut despite their insistence on not throwing the ball to Julio Jones in the end zone.

Falcons +3.5
2 Fireball shots


Green Bay (2-1-1) -1.5 at DETROIT (1-3)

The Packers are right in the middle of that “are they good or not?” debate so far this year. They’re playing close games against other teams that may secretly not be good. Detroit is not in that camp. Throw out the Pats game because the Pats don’t show up until October, and they’ve lost to Dallas, San Francisco, and the Jets. Those teams are not secretly not good. Still, we’ll take the home dog in the rivalry game. That’s what we call sharp betting.

Lions +1.5
1 Fireball shot


CAROLINA (2-1) -7.5 vs. NY Giants (1-3)

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PICK: NY Giants +7.5
1 Fireball shot


LA CHARGERS (2-2) -5.5 vs. Oakland (1-3)

The Chargers will allow only one beer per transaction and will stop serving beer at halftime for this week’s game against the Raiders. This restriction has been in place since 2009 and ONLY applies to home games against the Raiders. No Chargers fans should be affected by this new rule as it is a home game.

The Chargers home games are played in the Stub Hub Center, a 27,000-seat soccer-specific stadium. Does anyone else see the irony in the Chargers not being able to find someone that can make a kick in that stadium?

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PICK: LA CHARGERS -5.5
1 Fireball shot


LA Rams (4-0) -7.5 @ SEATTLE (2-2)
*** MeUndies Backdoor Cover of the Week #2! ***

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After leaving with a broken leg in week 4, Earl Thomas reminded the Seahawks that they are still number 1 in his book.

The Rams looked unbeatable against the Vikings last week in a Thursday night “Island” game (only NFL action so everyone is watching). They scored at will and the defense made the big plays when they were needed. Seattle struggled to beat winless Arizona. Should be an easy Rams win, right? Not in this spot. The line is inflated so grab the 7.5 while it’s available in our “MEUNDIES BACKDOOR COVER OF THE WEEK”.

PICK: SEATTLE +7.5
3 Fireball shots!


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SAN FRANCISCO (1-3) -4.5 vs. Arizona (0-4)

My thoughts when trying to decide whether or not to watch this game on Sunday Ticket…

PICK: Arizona +4.5
3 Fireball shots!


PHILADELPHIA (2-2) -3.5 vs. Minnesota (1-2-1)

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Mike Zimmer is 9-3 ATS with extra time to prepare since 2015. Eagles are 3-12 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010. (source: walterfootball.com)

Be wary Eagles fans, history says short the Eagles the week before they play the Giants and the two teams will meet next Thursday in the Meadowlands.

Consider this week 5 scenario: Giants beat Panthers, Texans beat Cowboy, Vikings beat Eagles and Saints beat Redskins. Entering week 6, the NFC East would be led by the Redskins at 2-2 and the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants will be tied at 2-3. Is this now the weakest division?

PICK: Minnesota +3.5
2 Fireball shots


HOUSTON (1-3) -3.5 vs. Dallas (2-2)

At the start of the season, Jason Garrett was +3300 to be the first coach fired and Bill O’Brien was +2000. After week 4, Jason Garrett is +2000 and Bill O’Brien is +400. So, there will be a lot on the line for these two coaches.

Dallas’ offense is one-dimensional. Zeke Elliott leads the league in rushing but Dallas ranks 29th in passing offense. Houston’s strength is stopping the run. Garrett’s sideline clapping won’t do enough to propel the offense. Bill O’Brien lives to see another week and the Jason Garrett odds will get much shorter. 

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PICK: HOUSTON -3.5
1 Fireball shot


NEW ORLEANS (3-1) -6.5 vs. Washington (2-1)

The Washington offense led by Alex Smith is so boring you probably didn’t realize they had a bye last week. Rested and ready to go, the Redskins travel to New Orleans to face the Saints. Assuming he doesn’t get hurt on the flight to NO, Jordan Reed will be the main pass catching option for the Redskins offense. Following Reed on the receiver depth chart is a list of players everyone of has picked up and dropped repeatedly in fantasy. 

I’m not buying into the Saints just yet. They beat the Browns, Falcons and Giants. They only win of substance was the Falcons and that came in OT against a defense ravaged by injury. I think this line is 3-pts too high, so I’m going with the Redskins.

PICK: Washington +6.5
2 Fireball shots