Week 3:  We’ll Never Learn.

 

Last week was a disaster. See our Results page for more. We said week 1 was the second-hardest week to pick. One could argue that we said this to make our 9-7 record sound more impressive, you know, like Cowboys fans have done for years now. This year if they get to 9-7 it really would be impressive. But we digress. Week 2 is the hardest because you don't know what to believe from week 1. Onward.


Thursday Night
CLEVELAND (0-1-1) -3.5 vs. NY Jets (1-1)

Yes, the line is correct. The Browns are favored at home for the first time since Dec. 13th, 2015 when they beat the 49ers. I’m not sure if this is more a vote of confidence for the Browns or a major slap in the face to the Jets. More likely the later.

Cleveland’s defense has played well the first two weeks of the season. If the Brown’s kicker (2 of 5 on FGs and 3 of 5 on XPs) had his act together, Cleveland would be entering this game on a 2-game win streak. But it’s Cleveland, so they come into Thursday night 0-1-1 still searching for the win that will unlock the Bud Light.

In one of the Jetsy-ist moves ever, the Jets followed up a week 1 win in which they looked like Super Bowl contenders with a terrible loss at Miami. Jets fans knew to temper their excitement though.

The books are begging you to pick the Jets in this spot. We’re not biting. When a line looks to obvious, it’s always best to go the other way. Just the like the Browns D will do with all Darnold’s INTs.

PICK: CLEVELAND -3.5
3 Fireball shots!


Sunday Early
JACKSONVILLE (2-0) -6.5 vs. Tennessee (1-1)

This is potentially a let-down spot for the Jags coming off a huge win over New England. After dominating the Pats last week, we think the Jags build on the momentum rather than let down.

Tennessee is dealing with major injury issues on the offensive line. Not good when you are facing one of the best defenses in the league. Last week the Titans stole a game in Houston starting with a 66-yard fake punt TD on their first drive. After a Texans missed FG, Tennessee scored a TD on its next drive which featured 6 direct snaps to Derek Henry. 4:30 into the game and the Titans led 14-0. They hung on to win 20-17 on a last second FG. This won’t happen in Jacksonville.

The Jags offense looked excellent in week 2. Having learned their lesson in AFC Championship, the Jags keep their foot on the pedal and stayed aggressive on offense. This was a huge step for the Jags and for Blake Bortles and this confidence will continue to propel this team to a great season.

PICK: JACKSONVILLE -6.5
3 Fireball shots!


MIAMI (2-0) -3.5 vs. Oakland (0-2)

Who would have thought that Miami would be 2-0 to start the season? Probably just the schedule makers. The Dolphins have a huge advantage in the early season due to the heat and humidity in Florida. They also benefitted in week 1 from two weather stoppages – always tougher for a road team to handle unpredictable situations. In week 2, Miami flew to New York to face the Jets. Perfect timing as most of their fan base was in the area celebrating the Jewish holidays with family. Week 3 back to Miami to face Oakland in a 1 pm start. Advantage Dolphins.

I’m still shocked that Ryan Tannehill was the missing piece for this Miami team. Without Jay Cutler, the offense is vastly improved and efficient freeing up Jay to find reality TV stardom with wife Kristen Cavallari. Who Knew?

The seat under Jon Gruden will get a lot hotter when the Raiders fall to 0-3.

PICK: MIAMI -3.5
3 Fireball shots!


MINNESOTA (1-0-1) -16.5 vs. Buffalo (0-2)

Last week, the Buffalo Bills and the Erie County, NY Sheriff’s Department announced that fans caught “table-slamming” or that are “aggressively drunk” during pre-game tailgating will be ejected and could possibly face criminal charges.

Way to kick the Bills Mafia when they are down? Vontae Davis was so upset by the news he walked off the field and retired at halftime.

Vegas can’t make this line high enough. Until the Bills show something positive on the field, there is no amount of points that will make me pick them.

PICK: MINNESOTA -16.5
3 Fireball shots!


KANSAS CITY (2-0) -6.5 vs San Francisco (1-1)

KC rolled out to a 21-0 lead vs Pittsburgh on the road and then hung on. Niners squeaked by the totally mediocre Lions. Until Pat Mahomes returns to earth this line can't be high enough either. If the Chiefs were playing the Bills the line would be 25. Bet them and the over. The trend is your friend.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5
Pick: Over 56
3 Fireball shots!


BALTIMORE (1-1) -4.5 vs. Denver (2-0)

Not sure Baltimore has shown enough to be a 4.5-point favorite against 2-0 Denver.  Did you know, if he plays out the 3 plus years remaining on his current contract, Joe Flacco will have earned $210,800,000 as QB for the Ravens. I’m so floored by this number that I’m taking the Broncos and the points.

PICK: Denver +4.5
2 Fireball shots


Green Bay (1-0-1) -2.5 @ WASHINGTON (1-1)

Back in 1999, in the small town of West Canaan, Texas, star quarterback Lance Harbor took so many anesthetic shots on an injured knee, at the urging of coach Bud Kilmer, that it finally succumbs to failure and results in even greater injury after getting sacked during a game. He was rushed to the hospital, where doctors were appalled at the massive amount of scar tissue found under his knee and determine that the effects of the injury are permanent and will prevent him from being able to play football for a year and a half, costing him his FSU scholarship.

Mike McCarthy is no Bud Kilmer, but Aaron Rodgers knee is pretty messed up. Still, he continues to play on his own accord even though he doesn’t have a scholarship to FSU on the line. He has avoided further injury thus far, but one hit could knock him out. There’s no Jonathan Moxon waiting in the wings, it’s DeShone Kizer. Let’s hope Rodgers knee doesn’t take a hit in this game.

PICK: Green Bay +2.5
2 Fireball shots


HOUSTON (0-2) -6.5 vs. NY Giants (0-2)

We’ll never learn …..

We’ll never learn …..

PICK: NY Giants +6.5
1 Fireball shot


PHILADELPHIA (1-1) -6.5 vs. Indianapolis (1-1)

Carson Wentz is back for the Eagles this week which is a huge upgrade. The Eagles also brought back WR Jordan Matthews after missing out on Josh Gordon. Matthews played 3 seasons for the Eagles before being traded to the Bills before last season and has great chemistry with Wentz. Matthews also had the quote of the week when asked about his time in Buffalo:

“When I was in Buffalo, there was like nothing to do there, except … have fun with your wife. She got pregnant. So, we always say we got a Buffalo baby. Ain’t nothing to do there, except each other.” (and table-slam of course)

https://twitter.com/CaptAndrewLuck/status/1042410760415006720

With Captain Andrew Luck at the helm, the Colts are vastly improved. They will put up a valiant effort in their attack on Philadelphia, but will likely come up 3 points short. Take the points in this close battle.

PICK: Indianapolis +6.5
1 Fireball shot


ATLANTA (1-1) -3.5 vs New Orleans (1-1)

Perfect example of how you can't trust what you see in September. Atlanta played crappy and should have beaten the Eagles, and then played better and beat the Panthers. 1-1, should be 2-0. Aints lost to a little of the old FitzMagic in week 1, and then escaped from Cleveland when their kicker turned the 4th Q and overtime into an audition to go kick for the Chargers. 1-1, should be 0-2.

If these two teams weren't heated rivals, you might be able to go on just that and pick the Falcons. We, however, choose to make things way harder. We don't trust Matt Ryan to put the game away. What we know for certain is that the Falcons will continue to waste Julio Jones’ prodigious talent in the red zone. Stupid fantasy football.

Pick: Saints +3.5
1 Fireball shot.


CAROLINA (1-1) -2.5 vs Cincinnati (2-0)

After two games Cam is leading McCaffrey in rushing yards. We still say Cam is going to call his own number way more than he should. McCaffrey is leading the team in receptions and has been targeted on slightly more than 1/3 of Cam’s passes. He’s touched the ball 42 times in the first two weeks, with a long play of 18 yards from scrimmage. Overall it just registers as a meh so far. Not a lot of explosiveness to the offense, and not enough happening downfield. Against the 3rd leading rush defense in the league, it’s not going to be enough.

Also, you can't blame the Panthers for looking past this to their game against the Giants next week (bahahahahhahaha!)

Pick: Bengals +2.5
1 Fireball shot.


Sunday Late
LA RAMS (2-0) -6.5 vs LA Chargers (1-1)

We don't understand how the schedule gets made. The league is facing declining revenue and lack of fan interest because their product causes brain damage. You have 5 game slots to fill: Thursday/Sunday/Monday prime time. Need a good fame for those. Then somewhere from 10-13 games depending on bye weeks to divide on Sunday between the early and late slots. Showing 10 games at 1PM and only 3 at 4PM doesn’t make sense to begin with … and then you show Dallas/Seattle as the lead game???

This is the only good game in the afternoon. But only people in Southern California will be able to see it on local broadcast. Here’s the map of the afternoon game for the rest of the country.

Red is Dallas v. Seattle. Ouch.

Red is Dallas v. Seattle. Ouch.

  • Conclusion 1: The NFL secretly hates its fans.

  • Conclusion 2: Nobody watches anything but Red Zone. Otherwise no way they’d abide.

Pick: Chargers +6.5
2 Fireball shots


Chicago (1-1) -6.5 at ARIZONA (0-2)
*** MeUndies Backdoor Cover of the Week ***

The prior discussion of Dallas D has implications here. Arizona is living up to everyone’s pre-season expectation, that they would be downright awful. And Chicago is a dropped interception away from a 2-0 start looking at 3-0. So we’re taking the points and counting on the Bears’ continued ability to kick their fans in the nuts.

Pick: Arizona +6.5
2 Fireball shots


SEATTLE (0-2) -0.5 vs Dallas (1-1)

See note in intro about Dallas. They’re struggles on offense mask their struggles on defense. They allowed 13 points to the Giants, which seems good until you watch the Giants play offense.

This week their defense will be spared by Seattle’s offense. We still can't figure out why it’s so putrid. Maybe they’re taking the “we don't start playing for real until October” thing really serious. But take the home team anyway on a pick ‘em game, and hope this game isn't in your national coverage.

Pick: Seattle -0.5
1 Fireball shot.


Sunday Night
New England (1-1) -6.5 at DETROIT (0-2)
*** Bitter Giants Fan Alert! ***

We like Josh Gordon. We want him to be successful in a league that turns its back on him for his substance abuse issues while condoning felony behavior among its stars. At the same time, we root against the Pats, because they’ve been good for too long and we like competitive balance and buy into the whole Evil Empire argument.

So Josh, if you’re reading, do the right thing. Get yourself bounced from the Pats after this week. You know they’re going to see what you can do, so drop a couple of 70-yard TDs, drive up your price, and then find another team. Poop in Belichick’s hoodie. Replace Brady’s brown rice colonic with lemon juice and Tapatio. You want to come to a team where it’s completely OK for the star wideout to enjoy recreational drugs …. the Giants have an opening. Except you and Beckham may have to take turns at QB so someone can throw you the damn ball.

Pick: Pats -6.5
1 Fireball shot.


Monday Night
Pittsburgh (0-1-1) -0.5 at TAMPA BAY (2-0)

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been in the league 14 years with 7 teams, a blend of FitzMagic and FitzTragic. So far this year it’s all Magic, including his post-game Connor McGregor bit. The Harvard Lampoon should have such solid bits! We think you gotta ride this train as far as it goes and wonder what Jameis will do if they are 4-0 when his suspension ends. (Hint: his plans should not include the words “Starting QB for Tampa Bay Bucs.”

Like the stock market, it’s going to end one day, sooner rather than later, but in the meantime, you gotta enjoy the party.

Also ….. undefeated and underdogs at home vs the Steelers?  Talk about a slap in the face.

(The risk that we’re drinking the Kool-Aid is very high.)

Pick: Bucs +0.5
2 Fireball shots with Kool-Aid chasers.