Week 10: You've Been Warned!

Sportsbooks got smoked for the 3rd week in a row, which means higher lines for everyone!  We rode the wave last week to a stellar 10-3 record, and 15-3 in our last 18.

This week seems tough to pick, so we’re playing the meta game. Figure these lines are all inflated by a couple of points. Every game is has MeUndies Backdoor Cover of the Week potential.

Take favorites with caution. Public typically takes the favorites and the overs. Ask yourself what’s more likely: are we in a new normal where the sportsbooks lose money every week? Or will the books come back with a vengeance very soon. You’ve been warned.  

PITTSBURGH (5-2-1)  -3.5 vs  Carolina (6-2)

Person I would least want to be come January 2019: Le’Veon Bell’s agent.


It will be interesting to see how the Steelers respond to his attempt to rejoin the team. He’s effectively limited his options to one team for the 2019 season – NFL owners collectively hold a grudge better than anyone. It will be a battle to see if he eventually swallows his pride and takes what he considers to be a below market deal. Unfortunately there’s probably no more market. It’s the Steelers or calling Kapernick to see if they can class action status for their collusion suit. Somewhere a Nike ad agency is salivating. We’re calling it 50/50 that he’s out of the league next year.

On the field, we’re taking the Panthers. Their offense is humming and they don't have the distraction. (Also, I just did a whole big setup about taking the points this week.)

Panthers +3.5

1 Fireball Shot

Atlanta (4-4)  -4.5  at  CLEVELAND (2-6-1)

OK, I stuck to my guns for the first pick. Took the points. Is it safe to switch now? (Ed. note: why do you even ask?)

Matt Ryan is having a year similar to his 2016 MVP season. The Falcons are scoring TDs on 69% (Gronk laugh!) of their red zone possessions. Even Julio Jones scored a touchdown last week! He had to take a screen pass from behind the line of scrimmage and break it for 33 yards, but it still counts for 6.

Plus, the Browns still suck. Those free Bud Lights seem so long ago.

Falcons -4.5

3 Fireball Shots!

TAMPA BAY (3-5)  -2.5  vs   Washington (5-3)

Take the points, take the points, take the points. Now that we feel safe calling by name the Team that Formerly Would Not Be Named, they seem to be focusing on football. They need the win to stay ahead the Eagles and be the most shocking division winner this year.


Redskins +2.5

3 Fireball Shots!

KANSAS CITY (8-1)  -16.5  vs  Arizona (2-6)

Chiefs can score the football. But they’ve only covered 16.5 once this year. (Bengals, 45-10). Highly possible they’re looking forward to next Monday’s matchup against the Rams. They’ve got two games still vs the Raiders, so 10+ wins is guaranteed. We like Rosen to keep them close in the first half and then lose by 2 TDs. Even Cleveland scored 21 against them.

Cardinals +16.5

2 Fireball Shots

CHICAGO (5-3)  -6.5  vs  Detroit (3-5)

Perfect example. You really trust the Mitchell Trubisky Experience to keep it up? These teams will both wind up near 8-8 on the year. Maybe Chicago gets to 9-7. Their end of season schedule includes Vikings twice, Rams, Packers. They also have Giants, Niners, and Lions twice. This should be a 3 point game, because NFC North.

Lions +6.5

3 Fireball Shots!

New Orleans (7-1)   -4.5  vs  CINCINNATI (5-3)

This line has already moved hard to the Saints. It’s -6 and heading higher. 80% of the money on the Saints on the road after a huge win last week. Dez Bryant in the house! Same Dez that couldn't get open a year ago. Father Time is a bitch. Wait til game time and take the points.


Bingles +4.5

2 Fireball Shots

New England (7-2)   -6.5  at  TENNESSEE (4-4)

82% of the bets on the Pats. Tennessee average scoring deficit is 0.8 points per game. They’re like Jerry Seinfeld episode, where everything balances out.


If you don't know where we’re going with this pick, you’ve just been looking at the pictures. We’re giving it low confidence because of the whole Dark Side thing.

Titans +6.5

1 Fireball Shot

NY JETS (3-6) -7.5 vs. Buffalo (2-7) 

Buzz Woody.png

Sam Darnold leads the league with 14 interceptions. The 3-headed monster of Buffalo starting QBs (Allen, Anderson and Peterman) have combined for 16 interceptions which would surpass Darnold for the season lead. What I’m saying is this game is going to get messy.  In the past 4 weeks, fantasy defenses going against the Bills offense have scored an average of 21.25 fantasy points. Last week, Sam Darnold threw 4 INTs including a pick 6 for the only TD of the game in a 13-6 loss to Miami. Both defenses are worthy of a start in fantasy, but other than that stay as far away from this one as possible.

UPDATE: As of Thursday morning, it looks like Darnold and Anderson will both be out making the match-up Josh McCown vs. Nathan Peterman. Even worse!

PICK: Buffalo +7.5

3 Fireball Shots!

INDIANAPOLIS (3-5) -2.5 vs. Jacksonville (3-5)

Andrew Luck loves playing the Jaguars. In 8 career starts vs the Jags, Luck has completed 64 percent of his passes for 2,257 yards and 14 touchdowns with five interceptions. He averages 282.1 yards per game and is 6-2 in the meetings. Even better for this spot, he has thrown for 1,168 yards and six TDs with two INTs in four games against the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium.

But this game is a must-win for the Jaguars. After a 3-1 start, the Jags have lost four in a row. If they lose this week, they will fall a full 3 games back of the idle Texans in the AFC South. Leonard Fournette should be back for the Jags giving Blake Bortles some much needed support in the backfield.

The Colts O line has not allowed a sack since week 5. They will be tested this week by the Jags defensive front. If the defense can get to Luck, the Jags should win this game. I think this one will be decided by a field goal and that the Jags will win outright.

PICK: Jacksonville +2.5

2 Fireball Shots

LA Chargers (6-2) -10.5 @OAKLAND (1-7)

Jon Gruden returning home after another terrible Raiders loss.

Is this team even trying? Vegas doesn’t think so as they opened the Raiders as 10.5-pt home underdogs. Factoring home field advantage (if they still have one), Vegas is assuming the Raiders lose this game by two TDs. That’s a lot of respect to give the Chargers and a lot of disrespect to the Raiders. Although the Chargers have only lost to the Rams and Chiefs, two of the best teams in the league, how can you trust the Chargers? Their kicker misses at least one extra point and field goal per game and their coach constantly looks lost on the sidelines. I’ve been doing this long enough to know that this is a game the Chargers won’t cover and that they might even lose. Once you start believing in the Chargers and take them in your survivor pool, they no show in a game that’s an easy win on paper. This one looks too easy on paper.


3 Fireball Shots!

GREEN BAY (3-4-1) -9.5 vs. Miami (5-4)

Another interesting line. Green Bay, at 3-4-1 and coming off a very tough battle at New England, is favored by 9.5 vs a 5-4 Miami Dolphins team. Something seems fishy here (pun intended).

Green Bay seemed to a lose a player to injury every other play last week. WR Geronimo Allison was placed on IR with a groin injury. Jimmy Graham has not practiced this week with a knee injury. OL Brian Bulluga and LB Blake Martinez were both limited in practice and are questionable for week 10. And we all know that Aaron Rodgers’ knee is still not 100%. Plus, the Packers have a looming road match-up in Seattle next Thursday night. Not even Brock Osweiler can screw up this cover.  

PICK: Miami +9.5

1 Fireball Shot

LA RAMS (8-1) -10.5 vs. Seattle (4-4)

After getting killed the last couple of weeks, Vegas has over adjusted the lines this week. This game is perfect example. The Rams are a great team, but coming off a tough loss in New Orleans, this line should be closer to 7.5. Also, this is a “sandwich” game for the Rams. As mentioned, Rams played last week in New Orleans and next week they play the Chiefs in Mexico on Monday night. A seemingly easy home game vs the Seahawks is sandwiched right between road games against the top two teams in the league. Bad spot for the Rams.

PICK: Seattle +10.5

2 Fireball Shots

PHILADELPHIA (4-4) -6.5 vs. Dallas (3-5) 

Dallas is 0-4 on the road this season and 3-1 at home.

This game is at Philadelphia

Jason Garrett is 0-6 ATS after Monday night games.

Somehow Jason Garrett is still the head coach in Dallas.

Cowboys defense struggles when all-Pro linebacker Sean Lee is not on the field.

Lee went out Monday with a hamstring strain and is out 4-6 weeks.

Philadelphia has struggled with injuries and Carson Wentz is still regaining form after last season’s knee injury.

Eagles are coming off a bye.

Philadelphia lacked a play-maker on offense and struggled to find the magic they had last season.

Eagles added Golden Tate and this will be his first game in an Eagles uniform.

You can see where I’m going here. No amount of Jason Garrett’s clapping can overcome these facts. Eagles kick-off the second half of their season with a comfortable win.


1 Fireball Shot

SAN FRANCISCO (2-7)            -2.5 vs. NY Giants (1-7)

Me turning in my NY GiantCancels pick each week.

San Francisco fans spent the week looking for tattoo removal Groupons so they can laser off their “I love Jimmy G” tattoos. Rookie sensation, Nick Mullens, overwhelmed 49ers fans last week with a strong debut against the Raiders giving hope to a lost season in the Bay Area. Mullens gets the start again this week against the 1-7 NY Giants. Not a bad way to start your career; facing two storied franchises, both at their absolute worst. But slow down everyone, it’s more likely that Nick Mullens has a career closer to Nathan Peterman than Joe Namath. I expect a major regression this week even against a mediocre Giants D. Eventually the Giants will figure out a way to use their offensive weapons before the 4th quarter of each game. It’ll happen this week. Take the Giants (rake to face) on the money line.

PICK: NY Giants +2.5

3 Fireball Shots!